Research and Publications
Extinction risk from climate change is reduced by microclimatic buffering. Nature Climate Change, 8, 713-717.
(2018) Population variability in species can be deduced from opportunistic citizen science records: a case study using British butterflies. Insect Conservation and Diversity, 11, 131-142.
(2018) Citizen science and invasive alien species: Predicting the detection of the oak processionary moth Thaumetopoea processionea by moth recorders. Biological Conservation, 208, 146-154.
(2017) Climate change, climatic variation and extreme biological responses. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, 372, 20160144.
(2017) The dark side of street lighting: impacts on moths and evidence for the disruption of nocturnal pollen transport. Global Change Biology, 23, 697-707.
(2017) Developing a biodiversity-based indicator for large-scale environmental assessment: a case study of proposed shale gas extraction sites in Britain. Journal of Applied Ecology, 54, 872-882.
(2017) (2017)
A national-scale assessment of climate change impacts on species: Assessing the balance of risks and opportunities for multiple taxa. Biological Conservation, 213, 124 - 134.
(2017) 
Using citizen science butterfly counts to predict species population trends. Conservation Biology, 31, 1350-1361.
(2017) Assessing species' habitat associations from occurrence records, standardised monitoring data and expert opinion: A test with British butterflies. Ecological Indicators, 62, 271-278.
(2016) (2016)
Uncovering hidden spatial structure in species communities with spatially explicit joint species distribution models. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 7, 428-436.
(2016) The State Of The Uk’S Butterflies 2015. Butterfly Conservation and the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wareham, Dorset.
(2015) Long-term changes in the distribution of British moths consistent with opposing and synergistic effects of climate and land use change. Journal of Applied Ecology, 51, 949-957.
(2014) (2011)
The Butterfly Red List For Great Britain. Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Peterborough.
(2010) Assisted colonization in a changing climate: a test-study using two U.K. butterflies. Conservation Letters, 2, 46-52.
(2009) Surrogacy and persistence in reserve selection: landscape prioritization for multiple taxa in Britain. Journal of Applied Ecology, 46, 82-91.
(2009) Direct and indirect effects of climate and habitat factors on butterfly diversity. Ecology, 88, 605-611.
(2007) Government targets for protected area management: will threatened butterflies benefit?. Biodiversity and Conservation, 16, 3719-3736.
(2007) The distributions of a wide range of taxonomic groups are expanding polewards. Global Change Biology, 12, 450-455.
(2006) The effects of visual apparency on bias in butterfly recording and monitoring. Biological Conservation, 128, 486-492.
(2006)