Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year

Author
Macgregor Callum J.
Thomas Chris D.
Roy David B.
Beaumont Mark A.
Bell James R.
Brereton Tom
Bridle Jon R.
Dytham Calvin
Fox Richard
Gotthard Karl
Hoffmann Ary A.
Martin Geoff
Middlebrook Ian
Nylin Sӧren
Platts Philip J.
Rasteiro Rita
Saccheri Ilik J.
Villoutreix Romain
Wheat Christopher W.
Hill Jane K.
Abstract

<p>Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species’ life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to ~0.5 °C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (n = 39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (n = 91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate polewards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species.</p>

Year of Publication
2019
Journal
Nature Communications
Volume
10
Issue
1
Date Published
2019/10/24
ISBN Number
2041-1723
URL
DOI
10.1038/s41467-019-12479-w
Scheme
Research themes